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Scenario Planning
Decipher's Scenario Planning Tool is called Four Futures, and uses a framework that allows us to evaluate the impact of media change in four broad areas:
The Four Futures Framework, and the resulting four scenarios, are built on a matrix established by an analysis of two conflicts:
Conflict 1 - Between Broadcasters and Consumers
Conflict 2 - Between the Pay and Free markets for TV.
When we map these two conflicts over each other we get a view of the emerging TV market which is divided in to four clear scenarios. These scenarios, and the analysis framework they provide underpin the research work we undertake in our Future Media Research Programme.
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This scenario is arguably the most anarchic, of the four, where consumers take charge of the media they consume and of the devices and distribution platforms they use.In certain groups of viewers and consumers this behaviour is beginning to have a significant impact on the traditional business models that have governed the mainstream media for many years. This scenario is typified by the consumption of content via emerging online channels such as the now common social networking websites, and through legitimate and illegitimate Internet TV, video and file sharing services and across a range of screen based devices. It is where the voice of the consumer reins supreme, where they are quick to filter out content which does not fit their highly tuned and specific tastes.